5 Predictions for the Theater in 2024

It’s impossible to predict the future with perfect accuracy, but a robust knowledge of the news and a keen eye for trends allows one to form sense of what comes next. With that in mind, here are five predictions from TheaterMania’s writers about the theater in 2024.

1. The Theater Community Will Go All-In for Joe Biden

2024 will see a tumultuous US presidential election when former President Donald Trump runs against sitting President Joe Biden. The presence on the ballot of a name-brand independent candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will make this election particularly unpredictable, with the 69-year-old scion of an American political dynasty absorbing the votes of those who cannot bring themselves to support either 81-year-old Biden or 78-year-old Trump (the advanced ages of the three candidates will be another destabilizing factor). While it is impossible to predict how the election will turn out, it is safe to assume that members of the Broadway and wider theatrical community will turn out for Joe Biden — as they did for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012.

Theatermakers overwhelmingly embrace the progressive politics that have been broadly adopted by the Democratic Party, and Actors’ Equity (the union representing actors and stage managers) already endorsed Biden’s reelection in June 2023. It’s no secret that the theater has staked a position in America’s partisan culture war; but the electorate (and Congress) remains evenly divided, with millions of Americans casting votes for legislators who would happily defund the National Endowment for the Arts. That leads directly to a second prediction…

2. There Will Be No Federal Bailout for America’s Not-for-Profit Theaters

We’ve written extensively about this country’s struggling not-for-profit theaters. Revenue from ticket sales and donors is down, while expenses only ever go up. Some observers believe the best solution is for the federal government to prop up these beloved institutions with a bailout — or better yet, to subsidize them as many European governments do for their theaters. Neither of these things will happen in 2024. Democrats don’t need to pass an arts relief bill to secure the votes of theatermakers and their supporters; and Republicans, who see theaters as citadels of wokeness, are happy to sit back and watch them fail. In light of this bleak reality, the leadership of American institutional theaters must radically reimagine their business models and find new streams of revenue to survive the coming decade. Uncle Sam will not be riding to the rescue. — Zachary Stewart

3. The Prestige American Play Will Make a Resurgence on Broadway

Every year like clockwork, just in time for Tony nominations, we get an influx of big hits from the West End taking up real estate on Broadway. I’ll never say no to a new Tom Stoppard, but I admit, I am getting tired of seeing British plays that are generally about style over substance (Life of Pi, The Shark Is Broken). Given the reception that these two particular plays faced recently, I don’t think I’m the only one who’s had enough. I expect 2024 to bring about a shift: instead of plays from London coming in, Broadway will see the return of the American play, many of which will come from off-Broadway. Already this season, we’re getting Joshua Harmon (Prayer for the French Republic), Branden Jacobs-Jenkins (Appropriate), and Amy Herzog (Mary Jane) transfers. Wouldn’t it be nice to add a David Adjmi (Stereophonic), Eboni Booth (Primary Trust), Annie Baker (Infinite Life), and Rebecca Gilman (Swing State) to that list? — David Gordon

4. Here Lies Love Paved the Way for Immersive Theater on Broadway, and We’re Sure to See More

David Byrne and Fatboy Slim’s Here Lies Love, a concert-style musical about the rise and fall of Imelda Marcos, was a mega-hit when it opened off-Broadway at the Public Theater in 2013. Director Alex Timbers constructed the show so that audiences literally moved and danced with the action as stages revolved and actors mingled with the crowd as though it were a political rally. The format was a natural fit for an intimate off-Broadway theater, but Broadway had never done anything quite like it on this scale before. After having seen the show twice at the Broadway Theatre, I can attest that this kind of staging works very well. The show didn’t find the audience it had hoped for, most likely because some were perplexed by the unfamiliar subject matter (more than once I overheard someone say they didn’t know what was going on). Even so, you couldn’t deny that Here Lies Love was a unique and incredibly entertaining theatrical experience, and I think Broadway audiences could easily develop a taste for shows like it.

That’s why I’m predicting that directors and producers will consider similar audience-interactive shows for Broadway in 2024. Rebecca Frecknall’s immersive staging of Cabaret is already on its way from London. But I’m thinking of another revival from across the pond: Guys and Dolls, which I saw at the Bridge Theatre this past September (tickets are still on sale there through next August). Nicholas Hytner directs a positively electric production of the classic Frank Loesser musical with numerous stages that rise from and descend into the floor while audiences stand just feet away from the action. At three hours, Guys and Dolls was twice as long a time to be on my feet as Here Lies Love was, but I wouldn’t have wanted to see it any other way (you can opt for a seat as well). Given the right material, productions like Here Lies Love and Guys and Dolls could become more common on Broadway, and I think in 2024 we’ll hear more talk of them. If luck is a lady, maybe we’ll get a chance to see Sky Masterson roll the dice in New York this year. — Pete Hempstead

5. The Best Revival of a Musical Tony Will Once Again Prompt Fierce Competition

The category of Best Revival of a Musical will be hotly contested at the 2024 Tony Awards, as it was in 2023. The producers of the hit revival of Merrily We Roll Along recently announced an extension to July 7, 2024 — essentially a declaration that they intend to campaign for the Best Revival Tony, which will be announced at Lincoln Center on June 16. The sold-out, critically acclaimed production is practically guaranteed a nomination and appears to be the favorite from the vantagepoint of January 1. However, it will face stiff competition from the immersive revival of Cabaret, set to begin performances at the August Wilson Theatre (which is being temporarily rechristened the “Kit Kat Club”) April 1. That production is already a hit in London, where it won the 2022 Olivier Award for Best Musical Revival. Then there’s the highly anticipated revival of The Wiz, which begins performances at the Marquis Theatre March 29. And let’s not forget about The Who’s Tommy, which starts at the Nederlander March 8. Monty Python’s Spamalot, which is already enjoying an open-ended run at the St. James, seems to be a dark horse (Black Knight?) candidate — but who knows what kind of clever campaigning will upend the race? Stranger things have happened. All that means 2024 is shaping up to be another excellent year for musical revivals on Broadway. — Zachary Stewart