Predictions: Who Will Win Best Director, Choreographer, Score, and Book Tonys in 2025?

The winners of the 2025 Tony Awards will be revealed in a televised ceremony on Sunday, June 8. Here are our critics’ predictions for Best Directors of a Musical and a Play, Best Book of a Musical, Best Original Score, and Best Choreography.

Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club
Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer, Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Michael Arden
Should win: David Cromer

David Cromer has long had the most sensitive eye for lighting among the small handful of directors who regularly work on Broadway, but his collaboration with designer Heather Gilbert is extraordinary, with the early scenes materializing in the dark spaces around the band, which is the engine that drives Dead Outlaw. It’s beautiful and understated, pointing the way for future production that won’t enjoy a Broadway budget. But Michael Arden is also doing some next-level work with Maybe Happy Ending, deploying eye-popping projections and a complicated set for a musical that feels simultaneously high-tech and old-fashioned. The Tony voters will appreciate that bridge-building and reward him for it.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Michael Arden
Should win: Christopher Gattelli

Maybe Happy Ending came out of nowhere and surprised just about everyone who’s seen it with its intriguing set, endearing performances, and charming score. Those surprises don’t come by chance. Michael Arden shows us how you can take something simple and transform it into something extraordinary. But Christopher Gattelli takes something big and makes it even bigger in Death Becomes Her. I’m still laughing about the melee between Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty that culminated in a slo-mo staircase tumble. Brilliant and hilarious.

David Gordon
Will win: Michael Arden
Should win: Michael Arden

In a very un-British way, Sunset Boulevard director Jamie Lloyd is kissing every baby this season – he’s at event after event supporting the show and his nomination, despite being in rehearsals for a major revival of Evita in the West End at the same time. He must really want this one. But Michael Arden is going to win it for finding the heart in a pair of lonely, obsolete robots who fall in love while on a road trip across Korea.

Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams, English
Sam Mendes, The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Danya Taymor, John Proctor Is the Villain
Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Kip Williams
Should win: Knud Adams

I suspect Tony voters will be wowed by the way Williams marshals so many moving parts in the solo adaptation of The Picture of Dorian Gray, which uses live and recorded video so that Sarah Snook can play opposite herself. It’s impressive, but I was more astounded by the intricately layered performances Knud Adams was able to draw out of every cast member in English, a play that carved out a space on Broadway this season for quietly nuanced drama.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Sam Pinkleton
Should win: Kip Williams

Kip Williams deserves this award for orchestrating the intricate series of technical maneuvers and camera angles that make Sarah Snook’s already breathtaking performance larger than life. But Sam Pinkleton does something equally impressive with a far less expensive set: He creates an outrageous atmosphere of camp and sustained laughter from Cole Escola’s ridiculously funny script. Comedy like that is hard, but Pinkleton makes it look easy.

David Gordon
Will win: Sam Pinkleton
Should win: Sam Pinkleton

Dying is easy, comedy is hard. But in Oh, Mary!, everyone on stage makes getting a laugh look effortless. It’s all thanks to the finely tuned eye of Sam Pinkleton, who lets his actors be over the top will still managing to reign it in. He spreads his secret sauce all over Mary Todd Lincoln, and it’s perfect.

Best Book of a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club, Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw, Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her, Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending

In almost any other season, Itamar Moses would easily take this award for his brilliant dramatic autopsy of a true tale of American entrepreneurship and exploitation in Dead Outlaw. It’s both chilling and hilarious. But this year voters also have the option of awarding Will Aronson and Hue Park’s heartwarming book for Maybe Happy Ending, a love story between two retired robots that will have them thinking about their own marriages and mortality.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Itamar Moses for Dead Outlaw
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending

Maybe Happy Ending is one of the most charming and original stories that a Broadway has seen in recent years. Having said that, Dead Outlaw is the most original. Who would have thought that a corpse would have such an entertaining musical in it! Itamar Moses did. That kind of vision along with terrific execution deserves the award.

David Gordon
Will win: David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts for Operation Mincemeat
Should win: Itamar Moses for Dead Outlaw

In my mind, this is the only category (other than Featured Actor in a Musical) where Operation Mincemeat has the chance to win, so I think voters will spread the love its way accordingly. The most original book this season is Dead Outlaw, which Itamar Moses tells like a murder ballad and a ghost story all at the same time.

Best Original Score
Dead Outlaw, David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her, Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson (music and lyrics) and Hue Park (lyrics)
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
Real Women Have Curves: The Musical, Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending

This is another category where the race comes down to two frontrunners: Dead Outlaw and Maybe Happy Ending. While Yazbek and Della Penna use a vast range of American musical styles (but most effectively rock) to tell their grim all-American story, Aronson and Park have set their futuristic musical to a jazz score that sound like old Broadway, even if the show is about South Korean robots. I predict the latter score, full of earworm melodies and clever lyrics, will take it by a hair.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending

Operation Mincemeat‘s standout number is “Dear Bill,” but I found most of the other numbers forgettable. Dead Outlaw showcases some head-bobbing rock among other musical genres, making it by far the most eclectic score out of these nominees. But Maybe Happy Ending feels the most cohesive and well-crafted, with a roster of a couple dozens songs each of which tickle the ear and contribute to the story. It will edge out the others.

David Gordon
Will win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending
Should win: Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending

This is a category filled with just ok scores. The jazzy tunes of Maybe Happy Ending are the most ok of them all, even if the album I’m playing over and over is Dead Outlaw.

Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, SMASH
Camille A. Brown, Gypsy
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck for Buena Vista Social Club
Should win: Joshua Bergasse for SMASH

Justin Peck won this category last year for Illinoise, and it seems likely he’ll get a repeat with collaborator Patricia Delgado for the excellent dancing in Buena Vista Social Club. It’s one of the few categories this show has a fighting chance to win. But my heart is with Joshua Bergasse, whose imaginative choreography for SMASH was a loving tribute to old Broadway and its reigning queen, director Susan Stroman.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck for Buena Vista Social Club
Should win: Jerry Mitchell for BOOP! The Musical

Buena Vista Social Club‘s choreography contributes to the storytelling as much as the score does, and it’s performed so energetically that it’s hard to not stand up in your seat and join in. But Jerry Mitchell created some equally exciting dance numbers in BOOP!, particularly an inspired Act 2 opener. I’d be just as happy to see this one win.

David Gordon
Will win: Jerry Mitchell for BOOP! The Musical
Should win: Camille A. Brown for Gypsy

In this category, Camille A. Brown had the hardest job — choreographing all new moves for Gypsy, a musical that has relied on the Jerome Robbins strobes for 60 years. I’d like to see her finally get it, but I would never begrudge Jerry Mitchell, a lovely man and clever thinker who created one of the best production numbers ever in act-two opener “Where Is Betty?”