Predictions: What Shows Will Win the Best Musical, Play, and Revival Tonys in 2025?

The winners of the 2025 Tony Awards will be revealed in a televised ceremony this Sunday, June 8. After offering their predictions in the acting and creative categories, our critics have some predictions about the four big show categories: Best Musical, Best Play, Best Revival of a Musical, and Best Revival of a Play.

Best Revival of a Play

THE NOMINEES
Eureka Day
Romeo + Juliet
Our Town
Yellow Face

Pete Hempstead
Will Win: Eureka Day
Should Win: Our Town

With practically every news cycle calling out another anti-vaxxer measles outbreak, Eureka Day has timeliness on its side, and it also had one of the most hilarious scenes I saw on Broadway this season. It was, for me, far more memorable than the other plays on this list. Still, Our Town brought a classic into modern times without tinkering with the text too much. Yes, it felt shorter, but I was incredibly moved by its final scene and the feeling that the play represented America better in this production than it had before.

David Gordon
Will Win: Yellow Face
Should Win: Yellow Face or Eureka Day

For me, this contest is really between David Henry Hwang’s Yellow Face and Jonathan Spector’s Eureka Day. Romeo and Juliet and Our Town made the list because they were pretty much the best of the other options (here’s looking at you, Othello and Glengarry), despite just being OK themselves. Both Eureka Day and Yellow Face are timely—one about the vaccine debate, the other about the limitations of the American dream—but the latter has the edge: It was filmed for PBS, and the producers are working like crazy to have FYC screenings (I was invited to at least three).

Zachary Stewart
Will Win: Eureka Day
Should Win: Yellow Face

I wasn’t as taken with Eureka Day as it seems many theatergoers were (judging from multiple extensions). But it has the benefit of feeling like edgy, taboo-breaking comedy while not actually offending anyone in the Broadway audience. That makes it a winner with voters. But Yellow Face is the much smarter play, diving head-first into the deep end of identity politics and its many contradictions.

Best Revival of a Musical

THE NOMINEES
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Blvd.

Pete Hempstead
Will Win: Sunset Blvd.
Should Win: Floyd Collins

I would argue that Floyd Collins is the best musical of the season, revival or otherwise. It has the most intricate and compelling score, brilliant performances, and beautiful visual moments. Having said that, it hasn’t crossed into the realm of popular appeal, unlike Sunset Blvd., which has a stunning performance from Nicole Scherzinger. She’s going to lead the production to a win in this category.

David Gordon
Will Win: Sunset Blvd.
Should Win: Floyd Collins

Gypsy is a sturdy production where Audra is the only one to write home about, and Pirates! is fun but it’s not a Tony winner (and not every show needs to be). My heart is with Floyd Collins, a difficult show that’s beautifully rendered, but this statue was engraved for Sunset Boulevard before it even started previews.

Zachary Stewart
Will Win: Gypsy
Should Win: Floyd Collins

Gypsy was the hot ticket of the fall—even hotter than the much-anticipated revival of Sunset Blvd. I’m expecting it to win this category, even if Audra doesn’t win hers.

Best Play

THE NOMINEES
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose

Pete Hempstead
Will Win: Oh, Mary!
Should Win: Purpose

Branden Jacobs-Jenkins is the best American playwright writing today, period. Purpose is his latest and deservedly lauded work, and I would love to see him take home another Tony after winning one for last year’s Appropriate. I suspect, however, that voters might be swayed by the extraordinary popularity of Cole Escola’s iconoclastic comedy Oh, Mary! It truly is one of the funniest things I’ve ever seen onstage, and I give it a slight edge over Purpose.

David Gordon
Will Win: Oh, Mary!
Should Win: English, The Hills of California, John Proctor Is the Villain, Oh, Mary!, Purpose

Two Pulitzer winners, one Pulitzer finalist, a contemporary British masterpiece, and a contemporary American masterpiece. All five nominated shows in this bumper crop of a category deserve to take home the gold, but it’s going to the laugh-a-minute juggernaut, Oh, Mary!

Zachary Stewart
Will Win: Purpose
Should Win: Oh, Mary!

Purpose is on a roll this year, picking up the Pulitzer and the New York Drama Critics’ Circle Award. Both wins are well-deserved, placing Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’s play about family and power among the greatest American dramas (which it is). Awards voters tend to reward very serious drama over comedy. Just think about the recent winners of this award: Stereophonic, Leopoldstadt, The Lehman Trilogy, The Inheritance…they’re sober, profound, and long. But maybe this year the voters will see fit to reward a 90-minute comedy that treats American history with the irreverence it deserves.

Best Musical

THE NOMINEES
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat

Pete Hempstead
Will Win: Maybe Happy Ending
Should Win: Dead Outlaw

I’m giving Dead Outlaw my “Should Win” not because I don’t think Maybe Happy Ending shouldn’t. They’re a coin toss for me. But Dead Outlaw has an off-Broadway vibe that doesn’t quite translate to a bigger stage, and I think Tony voters will sense that. Same with Buena Vista Social Club, which I absolutely adored off-Broadway but felt slightly less engaged with the second time around. Maybe Happy Ending is that rare original musical that ticks all the boxes. It deserves the win.

David Gordon
Will Win: Maybe Happy Ending
Should Win: Buena Vista Social Club

I thought Death Becomes Her was fine. Operation Mincemeat doesn’t have the same DIY buzz that it has in the UK. Dead Outlaw is probably in the wrong theater for a show of its size. I liked Maybe Happy Ending, which captured this year’s “Little show that defied the odds” title, but the most fun I had in a Broadway theater this season was at Buena Vista Social Club. When those musicians start playing, it’s like nothing else.

Zachary Stewart
Will Win: Maybe Happy Ending
Should Win: Maybe Happy Ending

In almost any other season, Dead Outlaw would win this award for the way it pushes the musical form forward while telling a disturbing and hilarious story about America. But we have been blessed this season with another original musical that similarly draws on our past (specifically through jazz) to sing a song of love and mortality in the near future. Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw are equally significant to the development of musical theater, in my opinion, but the former has the benefit of being a love story, which I suspect will give it the edge over the cynicism of Dead Outlaw. For better or worse, love wins on Broadway.