Predictions: What Will Win the Best Musical, Play, and Revival Tonys in 2026?

This is the final installment of TheaterMania’s critic predictions before the Tony Awards on Sunday, June 7. Click the links to read their thoughts on leading actors, featured actors, and creative categories.

Best Musical

THE NOMINEES
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

David Gordon
Will win: Schmigadoon!
Should win: Titaníque

South Pacific, Guys and Dolls, Fiddler, Cabaret, 1776, Rent, The Producers, and Hamilton these are not. But in a transitional season, the four productions above emerged as the best of the best, heaven help us. Schmigadoon! has the momentum, but Titanique is the best executed. It knows exactly what it is and completes its mission with confidence.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: The Lost Boys
Should win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

I suspect there is a big constituency against crowning The Lost Boys this season’s best musical. It is undoubtedly the most spectacular new musical on Broadway, but its full embrace of expensive stagecraft over the fundamentals of good musical storytelling makes it a tough sell for musical theater purists. But they won’t be able to coalesce around an alternative, effectively splitting the dissenting vote and allowing The Lost Boys to ascend.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: The Lost Boys
Should win: The Lost Boys

We can debate the artistic merit of these four all day and come up with very different, and valid, opinions. I enjoyed Schmigadoon! a lot, but I had already seen it (basically) on Apple TV. Two Strangers was charming, but the performances outshone the musical itself. And honestly, I liked Titaníque more when it was a scrappy musical in a tiny theater in a Gristedes basement; it doesn’t quite hold its own on Broadway. The Lost Boys towers above all the others for its stagecraft, and say what you want about its score, it’s the only show on this list I would pay to see again.

Best Play

THE NOMINEES
The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant, Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation, Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter

David Gordon
Will win: Liberation by Bess Wohl
Should win: Liberation by Bess Wohl

Liberation is Bess Wohl’s magnum opus, a daring and sensitive play that hits you right in the heart. The fact that this new American play with no celebrities survived its whole commercial run on Broadway is the true miracle of the season, and the statute will be the icing on the cake.

Zachary Stewart

Will win: Liberation, Bess Wohl
Should win: Liberation, Bess Wohl

I’m tempted to predict a win for Giant due to recency bias. It’s still playing on Broadway while Liberation closed months ago. But I suspect voters will want to give a boost to the post-Broadway afterlife of Liberation (destined to be produced at regional theaters across America) by giving it the Tony stamp of approval.

Pete Hempstead

Will win: Liberation, Bess Wohl
Should win: Liberation, Bess Wohl

We’re all in agreement on this one, and it didn’t take a Pulitzer to convince us (it never does). This is a magnificent play, and it is by far the best of the year. It will win.

Best Revival of a Musical

THE NOMINEES
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show

David Gordon
Will win: Ragtime
Should win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Cats: The Jellicle Ball is a revival in the truest sense, bringing vitality and life to a property that everyone has spent decades writing off. It’s a party at the Broadhurst Theatre that I’ve seen twice now. But Ragtime meets the sociopolitical moment in a way that no other show does this season, and with 60 people onstage and in the pit combined, it is the magic of Broadway at its best.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Ragtime 

Cats: The Jellicle Ball is an example of what you can do with a well-known musical if you completely rethink the way it looks and feels. The voters are going to reward that creativity. But if I had to choose only one of these three to return to, it would be Ragtime. Lear deBessonet’s staging doesn’t remake the wheel, but by splurging on the orchestra, Lincoln Center Theater is giving audiences a taste of what a truly great musical theater score can sound like—and rarely does in the age of diminished music budgets.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Ragtime 

I was certain this category was Ragtime‘s to win, but Cats: The Jellicle Ball made me pause, and ultimately convinced me that this show is the musical revival that deserves the Tony for its shear creativity and power to make us see something old anew. I think it could go either way, and I certainly would love to see Ragtime win, but Cats has become something of a phenomenon this season, and I think voters will acknowledge that with a win.

Best Revival of a Play

THE NOMINEES
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus

David Gordon
Will win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

This award belonged to Oedipus until Death of a Salesman opened. The two productions are actually very similar in how they shake the dust off a classic, but Salesman is that rare case where all the stars align. You thought you never needed to see Salesman again, and this one came along and changed your mind.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman 

What a strange category this is! A pillar of American drama, an 18-year-old play about thorny human relations, a 13-year-old feel-good solo show, a Noel Coward comedy, and an updated Greek tragedy. They don’t really belong in the same category, but they’re here—proving definitively that awards for art are ludicrous. But Salesman is still going to win for offering its audiences a full emotional workout with a plays that continues to speak directly to American anxieties about our expendability in a society driven by the consumption of disposable goods.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman 

This production crushed me and got deep in my soul. Talk about making us see something old anew. I’ve seen this play half a dozen times. So why did this feel like the first? Sheer power—from the Joe Mantello’s direction, to the magnificent set, to the heart-pounding performances. It’s everything a great revival should be.