Predictions: Who Will Win Best Director, Choreographer, Score, and Book Tonys in 2026?

All week, TheaterMania’s critics will share their predictions ahead of the Tony Awards on Sunday, June 7. Click the links to read their thoughts on leading actors and featured actors.

Best Direction of a Musical

THE NOMINEES
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

David Gordon
Will win: Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Should win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Lear appears to have the momentum here, due in part to the fact that the Cats: The Jellicle Ball co-directors were already eligible for many precursor awards during the show’s Off-Broadway run last season. I’d still vote for their brilliant reimagining, but there’s no denying that the success of Ragtime rests heavily on the career-defining performances Lear drew from the heavy hitters in her cast.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The cleverness and care with which Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch have approached this revival of Cats, proving that the musical does indeed have strong enough bones to sustain a magnificent gut renovation, will easily put them over the top with the voters in this category.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

I’m the big Lost Boys fan on our team, and I was completely dazzled by Michael Arden’s vision for the show—not to mention the extraordinary number of moving parts that he had to keep under control with this enormous production. But Levingston and Rauch have done something extraordinary too with a musical we thought we knew. They have made it live—and it’s the first time (for me anyway) that this musical actually made sense.

Best Direction of a Play

THE NOMINEES
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation 

David Gordon
Will win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

What a phenomenal list of directors who are all going to lose to Joe Mantello. In a career lined with hits like Wicked, Assassins, Take Me Out, The Humans, and Three Tall Women, this one is his definitive triumph.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Robert Icke, Oedipus

Mantello absolutely deserves the Tony he will win for his gorgeous revival of Salesman, which will benefit from the recency bias of the voters. Unlike Robert Icke’s Oedipus, it is still playing. But I will never forget the sound of an audience gasping and weeping from a millennia-old drama, as if it were brand new.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Mantello did new and insightful things with Death of a Salesman that made me see this classic in a whole new way. Stunning work that deserves the Tony, hands down.

Best Book of a Musical

THE NOMINEES
The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

David Gordon
Will win: Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
Should win: Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue, Titanique

This is the only category where Titanique should win a Tony. It’s dumb, it’s silly, it beats its one joke into the ground in every conceivable way, and it executes all those things extremely well.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue
Should win: Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue

It’s the funniest book on Broadway this season, managing to retell the story of Titanic through the perspective of Céline Dion using the songs she made famous. Voters will reward the lingering laughs in this category.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Should win: The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch

Two Strangers wasn’t my favorite new musical of the year, but darned if it didn’t have a good story. I don’t think this is a major contender for Best Musical, but it could well win this category. The Lost Boys is a longer shot for book, though I thought the updates that Hornsby and Hoch made to the movie’s storyline deepened the narrative tremendously. I’d love to see it win.

Best Original Score

THE NOMINEES
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys, The Rescues
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

David Gordon
Will win: Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
Should win: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Schmigadoon! shouldn’t be eligible for this—all the best songs in this show were presented in the same context in the TV show (and the new material is negligible at best). I wasn’t a big fan of Two Strangers, but Barne and Buchan rhyme “Lethal Weapon 2” and “chicken vindaloo.” It was so satisfying I let out a sigh of contentment.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Should win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

I agree with David that Schmigadoon! should not be eligible for this award, but I’m a little more confident that the voters will recognize that and reward the show that actually has the best score of the year—even if it’s British.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
Should win: The Lost Boys, The Rescues

Paul’s score for Schmigadoon!, like the musical itself, is a pure delight, and I think it will resonate with Tony voters. I would give my vote to The Lost Boys, though. “Belong to Someone” and “Wild” stick with me, and the Rescues have proved to me that they can write for the stage.

Best Choreography

THE NOMINEES
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

David Gordon
Will win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

There’s some great choreography here, but all of it is secondary to the work of Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons in Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Ballroom veterans themselves, they imbue every moment with history, while simultaneously delivering instant serotonin in each number. Cats is a dance show first and foremost, and Wiles and Lyons make it dance.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

 While the aerial work Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant do in The Lost Boys is stunning, I suspect voters will be thinking about more earth-bound movement when they consider this category. And when it comes to Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons’s work on Cats, it’s 10s across the board.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

This one is no contest for me. Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons have given Broadway something fresh, exciting, and long overdue on a big stage, and the cast executes the choreo with catlike agility. This award belongs to them.