Predictions: Which Leading Actors Will Win a Tony Award in 2026?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

THE NOMINEES
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels

David Gordon
Will win: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Should win: Susannah Flood, Liberation

You spend a lot of time in Oedipus wondering why Lesley Manville agreed to play a relatively small role, and then she gets a jaw-dropping monologue where she reveals her character’s traumatic backstory, and she provided the kind of mesmerizing power that can only be achieved in theater. Still, my vote would go to Susannah Flood, for the beautifully precise way she delineated between two very different characters, a mother in the 1970s and her daughter in 2025, in Liberation.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Should win: Lesley Manville, Oedipus

She cast a spell over the audience in a 10-minute monologue in Oedipus, during which we could think of nothing else. In a time of tragically shortened attention spans, that deserves a Tony.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Should win: Susannah Flood, Liberation

This category is between Lesley Manville and Susannah Flood (though Rose Byrne did bring me to happy tears with her hilarious performance in Fallen Angels). I’ve admired Flood’s work for years, and she gave the best performance of her career in Liberation, but Manville seized the role of Jocasta and convinced me that Robert Icke’s Oedipus was not about its title character but about her. It was a tour de force that will land her the win.

 Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

THE NOMINEES
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus

David Gordon
Will win: John Lithgow, Giant
Should win: Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman

There’s a moment in Giant when John Lithgow transforms himself into a fire-breathing dragon. He’s not actually a fire-breathing dragon, of course, just a cranky, old Jew-hater, but his metamorphoses in just the way he carries himself is truly astonishing, another excellent performance from someone incapable of anything less. There’s something equally special about the Willy Loman of Nathan Lane, another actor incapable of anything less than excellence. It’s the least Nathan Laney he’s ever been, and there’s a genuine thrill in watching an actor rise to the challenge of something completely different for them.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
Should win: John Lithgow, Giant

Lithgow seems to have physically transformed in his stunning portrayal of author Roald Dahl in Giant, a self-satisfied smile carried aloft on a towering frame. But Lane is giving an equally memorable performance in one of the greatest role in American drama. I suspect the legacy of Salesman will give him the edge.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: John Lithgow, Giant
Should win: Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman

I had Mark Strong pegged as the shoo-in for this category back in November, but then I saw John Lithgow in Giant and had to reassess. Same thing happened when I saw Nathan Lane, who delivered a Willy Loman I will never forget. All three of them are deserving—Strong and Lane for breathing new life into fictional characters I thought I already knew well; but Lithgow’s portrayal of the real-life Roald Dahl was so rich and complex that I found myself wondering if I could separate my new feelings for the man from the legacy of his work. I can see other actors playing Oedipus and Willy Loman well, but Lithgow’s portrayal of Dahl feels one-of-a-kind.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

THE NOMINEES
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

David Gordon
Will win: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Should win: Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!

This marks a long overdue first nomination for Caissie Levy, and likely a well-deserved first Tony win for this Broadway mainstay with Marin Mazzie-sized shoes to fill. In an alternate universe, it would be fun to see Sara Chase pull an upset. In a cast of scenery chewers, she’s the glue that holds Schmigadoon! together.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Should win: Marla Mindelle, Titaníque

Awards voters typically recognize dramatic performances over comic ones, and Levy’s thoughtful portrayal of mother beautifully fits the bill in this category, which is stacked with hilarious performances in lighter fare. But there is no doubt in my mind that the best musical performance this season came from Marla Mindelle, who as a co-writer of Titaníque, also improvises an entire scene every night. She’s a Broadway talent who really ought to be a Tony winner, one way or another.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Should win: Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Caissie Levy was spectacular in Ragtime, and the prestige that that great American musical already has will help guide her to the win. But I have to say that Christiani Pitts won me over the second time I saw Two Strangers. I’ll admit I wasn’t all that taken with the show when I first saw it, but Pitts’s performance has deepened over the course of the run, and I was entranced when I saw her again. A win would be well deserved.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

THE NOMINEES
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

David Gordon
Will win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Should win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime

When Joshua Henry was announced to play Coalhouse Walker Jr. for the City Center run of Ragtime, this moment felt almost inevitable. If the trophy was engraved in pencil in 2024, it was carved in stone last fall when the show opened at the Beaumont, where Henry unleashed the full power of his performance. This is the closest we have to a sure thing on June 7.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Should win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime

He has been one of the biggest voices on Broadway since making his debut in the ensemble of In the Heights in 2008. Nominated thrice previously (for The Scottsboro Boys, Violet, and Carousel), this will be the year he finally takes home a well-deserved Tony Award for his showstopping performance as Coalhouse Walker Jr.

Pete Hempstead
Will win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Should win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime

This has been Henry’s to lose from the beginning. Nicholas Christopher impressed the hell out of me in Chess, and Sam Tutty endeared himself to me in Two Strangers, but Henry blows the roof off the Beaumont, and my opinion hasn’t veered since I saw him last October. This is his fourth nomination, and it’s his year.