Who Will Be Nominated for a Tony Award in 2026?

Nominations for the 2026 Tony Awards will be revealed next Tuesday, May 5. Here are my thoughts on the major categories and who is likely to get a nomination.

Best Musical
This has been a thinner year for new musicals. While 14 opened during the 2024-25 season, this season has only six—and one of those is The Queen of Versailles, which closed in December after receiving disappointing reviews. It is unlikely to be nominated. That leaves five musicals for four slots. Who gets left out? The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon!, and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) are shoo-ins. The delightful Céline Dion fever dream Titaníque is likeliest to get the fourth slot, but if enough nominators take pity on Beaches (I’m about the only critic who loved it) it could also be added as a fifth nominee (the rules allow additional nominees in the event of a tie). It would certainly be the nicest outcome, but I’m not counting on it.

Best Play
Giant (open) and Liberation (closed) are likeliest to receive noms. The rest really comes down to what the nominators loved, loathed, and remembered. I predict they will select The Balusters (open), and Little Bear Ridge Road (closed), which was just named Best Play of the season by the New York Drama Critics’ Circle.

Best Revival of a Musical
With five eligible revivals, there should be three nominees—with the possibility of a fourth if the vote difference between the third-highest and fourth-highest ranked show is less than 10 percent. Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Ragtime, and Chess will almost certainly be in there. The Rocky Horror Show might get a courtesy nomination. But this is ultimately going to be a contest between Cats and Ragtime.

Best Revival of a Play
This is the category with all the action this season. With 11 eligible play revivals, there will be at least five nominees (and maybe more in the event of a tie). Death of a Salesman, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, and Oedipus will be on the list, as will Gina Gionfriddo’s 2008 dark comedy Becky Shaw, which is making its Broadway debut but still counts as a revival under the “classics” clause of the Tony rules. The nominators might surprise us and give the last slot to Second Stage’s now-closed revival of Marjorie Prime (my choice), but it’s always safer to bet on an open production that can actually benefit from this award. That means either Proof or Fallen Angels—and I would give the edge to the latter.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
This category will come down to a contest between Nathan Lane (Death of a Salesman) and John Lithgow (Giant), although the nominators will want to recognize Daniel Radcliffe for the good vibes he’s putting out eight performances a week in Every Brilliant Thing. Adrien Brody will receive a courtesy nomination for The Fear of 13. The big question is, will they do the same for Jon Bernthal in Dog Day Afternoon? I think it’s likelier they will remember Mark Strong for his performance in the now-closed Oedipus.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Rose Byrne and Kelli O’Hara are both likely to be nominated for their comedic performances in the revival of Fallen Angels. It would be a travesty not to remember Lesley Manville for her transfixing performance in Oedipus. After that, things become murkier, but I would give the other two slots to Ayo Edebiri for Proof and Susannah Flood for Liberation, which despite being closed is likely to rack up several nominations on Tuesday.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
I suspect this is Joshua Henry’s category to lose (he plays Coalhouse in Ragtime). He is likely to be joined by Sam Tutty (Two Strangers), Luke Evans (The Rocky Horror Show), and Nicholas Christopher (Chess). But what about Aaron Tveit? Already a Tony winner for Moulin Rouge! (he was unopposed in the category that very strange pandemic year), his performance wasn’t my big takeaway from Chess—still, the nominators may feel differently. Don’t be surprised if Ragtime’s Brandon Uranowitz (already a Tony winner for Leopoldstadt) takes the last slot instead.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Jessica Vosk will be nominated for Beaches (perhaps the only nom the production will receive). So will Lea Michele (Chess), Caissie Levy (Ragtime), and Marla Mindelle for her hilarious turn as Céline Dion in Titaníque. The final slot will go to either Sara Chase for Schmigadoon! or Christiani Pitts for Two Strangers—my money is on Chase.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Alden Ehrenreich is making a thrilling Broadway debut in Becky Shaw, for which he will almost certainly be nominated. Elliot Levey already won an Olivier Award for his performance in Giant, so it seems likely he’ll get a nod in New York. Despite appearing above the title, Christopher Abbott was bumped to featured in the last Tony Administration Committee meeting, suggesting that he is likely to appear in this category. Danny Burstein delivered a moving performance in Marjorie Prime that I hope the nominators remember. And I’m guessing the final slot will go to Ruben Santiago-Hudson for his bewitching performance in Joe Turner’s Come and Gone.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Two-time Tony winner Laurie Metcalf will be recognized for her revelatory performance in Death of a Salesman. I also think it likely that two-time Tony winner Kara Young, who swooped into Proof as a last-minute replacement, will receive her fifth consecutive nomination—a first in the history of the awards. The nominators won’t want to pass up an opportunity to nominate 96-year-old June Squibb for Marjorie Prime. I hope Betsy Aidem will be remembered for her performance in Liberation. My wild guess for the fifth slot is Jessica Hecht, who is excellent in Dog Day Afternoon and gives the nominators an opportunity to recognize that otherwise unloved play.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
André De Shields (Cats), Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime), and Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Lost Boys) are likeliest to be nominated in this category. My best guesses for the remaining two slots: Max Clayton for Schmigadoon! and Constantine Rousouli for Titaníque.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
The only nominations I feel totally confident about are Shoshana Bean for The Lost Boys and Nichelle Lewis for Ragtime. I would love to see McKenzie Kurtz get in there for her unhinged performance as Betsy in Schmigadoon! I’ll go out on a limb and predict “Tempress” Chastity Moore for Cats and Ana Gasteyer for Schmigadoon! in the final two slots.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
While it was a thin year for new musicals, this category will still have five nominees thanks to the amount of eligible incidental music written for plays. Two Strangers (Jim Barne and Kit Buchan), The Lost Boys (The Rescues), and Schmigadoon! (Cinco Paul) are practically guaranteed to be included. That leaves two slots, which I wager will go to unloved musicals The Queen of Versailles (Stephen Schwartz) and Beaches (Iris Rainer Dart and Mike Stoller). Just because incidental music is eligible doesn’t mean nominators will be eager to include it in this category.

Best Book of a Musical
With just four slots to fill, this one is easy: Two Strangers (Jim Barne and Kit Buchan), Schmigadoon! (Cinco Paul), Titaníque (Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue), and The Lost Boys (David Hornsby and Chris Hoch).

Best Choreography
There are five slots here. I feel most confident about Cats (Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons) and Schmigadoon! (Christopher Gattelli). It is highly likely Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant will be nominated for their stunning aerial choreography in The Lost Boys. Ellenore Scott will probably get in there for Ragtime. And Lorin Latarro really ought to be nominated for her muscular choreography in Chess, which makes the slightly incoherent musical a joy to watch.

Best Direction of a Musical
Two-time Tony Award-winning director Michael Arden is one of the driving creative forces on Broadway right now, having helmed the two biggest new musicals of the season. While I suspect he would prefer people forget about The Queen of Versailles, he will undoubtedly be recognized for The Lost Boys, a grand spectacle at the Palace Theatre. Zhaillon Levingston and Bill Rauch will be nominated for their visionary revival of Cats. Lear deBessonet will also be nominated for Ragtime, which manages to feel grand with minimal scenic design. That leaves two slots, which I predict will go to Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!) and Tim Jackson (Two Strangers).

Best Direction of a Play
The three likeliest nominees in this five-slot category are Robert Icke (Oedipus), Whitney White (Liberation), and Joe Mantello for his gorgeously melancholy staging of Death of a Salesman. Less certain but still likely is Nicholas Hytner for Giant. And I really hope the nominators remember Anne Kauffman for her staging of Marjorie Prime, which is now closed but lingers in my mind.