Story of the Week: Which Actors Are Going to Win a Tony in 2024?

The winners of the 2024 Tony Awards will be revealed in a televised ceremony on Sunday, June 16. Our critics have some predictions. Here’s who they think will win in the Best Performance categories for Musicals and Plays.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Roger Bart, Back to the Future: The Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell’s Kitchen
Sky Lakota-Lynch, The Outsiders
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell, Cabaret

David Gordon
Will win: Daniel Radcliffe
Should win: Joshua Boone

Joshua Boone’s performance in The Outsiders is so charismatic, and he really brings down the house with his big number. But I don’t see anyone else here winning besides Daniel Radcliffe, on his long overdue first nomination.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Daniel Radcliffe
Should win: Antoine Boissereau

Daniel Radcliffe has been a regular presence (and reliable ticket draw) on Broadway since his 2008 debut in Equus. He’s built up the goodwill and is delivering a Tony-worthy performance in Merrily. But the only actor to make me tear up this season was Antoine Boissereau, who was not nominated. He plays the dying horse Silver Star in Water for Elephants and manages to convey the heartbreak of a show horse’s last moments while flying above the audience, suspended by his neck. I’d like to see Harry Potter perform that trick.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Daniel Radcliffe
Should win: Brandon Victor Dixon

Daniel Radcliffe has proved time and again that he’s a talented stage actor, but his memorable performance of “Franklin Shepard, Inc.” from Merrily We Roll Along has me thinking that this is his year. It’s his first Tony nom and a well-deserved one that I think will be recognized with a win. Still, Brandon Victor Dixon gob-smacked me in Hell’s Kitchen with his seductive renditions of “Not Even the King” (heart-stopping) and “Fallin'” (drawers-dropping). He’s a Broadway treasure who deserves to win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
Amber Iman, Lempicka
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot
Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret

David Gordon
Will win: Lindsay Mendez
Should win: Kecia Lewis

I thought Kecia Lewis’s performance in Hell’s Kitchen was perhaps the best of the season. However, I feel certain that Lindsay Mendez will complete the Merrily acting trifecta. The chemistry of the “old friends” made Merrily as successful as it is, and as Sondheim wrote “old friends shouldn’t compete.”

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Lindsay Mendez
Should win: Lindsay Mendez

I would be happy with anyone winning this ludicrously overcrowded category. I think Lindsay Mendez will take it by a hair, however, by virtue of Shoshana Bean and Kecia Lewis splitting the Hell’s Kitchen vote.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Lindsay Mendez
Should win: Kecia Lewis

An incredibly difficult category to decide this year, but Lindsay Mendez probably has the most momentum to win with Tony voters. Kecia Lewis’s performance in Hell’s Kitchen, however, moved me to tears — twice. Of all the talent in this list, I would be most pleased to hear her name read.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Brody Grant, The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret

David Gordon
Will win: Jonathan Groff
Should win: Brian d’Arcy James

These nominations represent both d’Arcy James’ and Groff’s best performances to date. They’ve both never won, and they’re both beloved in the community. I would vote for Brian, but I wouldn’t be upset by Jonathan taking it home, and I’d give him the edge since Merrily is still running.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Jonathan Groff
Should win: Jonathan Groff

Merrily is finally a hit on Broadway and Groff is a big part of that. This performance, which he has been giving eight times a week since September, absolutely deserves a Tony.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Jonathan Groff
Should win: Dorian Harewood

Like Lindsay Mendez, Jonathan Groff seems to have the steam this year. But out of all of the actors in this category, Dorian Harewood, with his lump-in-the-throat performance as Maryann Plunkett’s stage husband in The Notebook, remains stuck in my head as one of the most understated yet deeply moving turns on Broadway this season.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret

David Gordon
Will win: Kelli O’Hara
Should win: Kelli O’Hara

Kelli is a perennial favorite of nominators, and her early career triumphs were overlooked year after year until The King and I cinched the statue for her. I think she’ll add a second one to her mantle this year for a performance that was unlike anything she’d delivered before.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Maleah Joi Moon
Should win: Maleah Joi Moon

The voters will crown an exciting newcomer, Maleah Joi Moon, for a vocally spectacular and uncommonly mature performance in Hell’s Kitchen. This is her professional stage debut, and she blows the competition out of the water.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Kelli O’Hara
Should win: Maryann Plunkett

I’m a sucker for a tearjerker, and that’s what The Notebook definitely is, so no surprise Maryann Plunkett is my personal favorite to win. Her performance as a woman with dementia tore me to pieces in every one of her scenes. Kelli O’Hara, however, gives an astonishingly complex performance in Days of Wine and Roses and executes the show’s intricate score with heartbreaking grace. While Maleah Joi Moon makes an impressive debut, it’s O’Hara who will get this one.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

THE NOMINEES
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

David Gordon
Will win: Corey Stoll
Should win: Jim Parsons

The three Stereophonic guys are great, and they’ll cancel each other out because that’s how these things usually go. Jim Parsons’s performance is the heart of Mother Play, but most people think he’s just playing himself. That leaves Corey Stoll. I don’t have much to say about his work in Appropriate, besides thinking that it’s just delightful to watch him and Sarah Paulson fight with each other. And honestly, that’s enough for me.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Corey Stoll
Should win: Eli Gelb

It’s hard to pick a winner among the three excellent actors nominated from Stereophonic, and I agree that this will probably doom their individual chances — but I would still choose Eli Gelb for his quietly heroic performance as Grover, the heart and soul of the play.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Will Brill
Should win: Eli Gelb

Though my colleagues are probably right about the three Stereophonic nominations working against the chances of any of them turning into wins, I’m going out on a limb and say that Will Brill’s quirky, funny, disturbing performance will override voters’ reluctance to choose a favorite from the Stereophonic crew, all of whom deserve the award. While Brill is perhaps more memorable, Gelb is especially subtle and precise at capturing the 1970s character of sound engineer Grover, right down to his accent. He would be my choice to win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt: A Parable
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

David Gordon
Will win: Kara Young
Should win: Kara Young

If Kara Young has any competition for this award, it’s Sarah Pidgeon in Stereophonic. Pidgeon is a newcomer who came out of nowhere and is really moving. But Young, on her third consecutive nomination, not only has the momentum, but was hilarious as Lutiebelle Gussie Mae Jenkins.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Sarah Pidgeon
Should win: Kara Young

I always have a hard time imagining anyone winning for a closed show, even though Kara Young’s performance was excellent and this is her third consecutive nomination. Maybe the third time’s a charm, but I would give the edge to Sarah Pidgeon, whose nervous energy and vocal prowess in Stereophonic beautifully tells the story of a superstar in the making.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Sarah Pidgeon
Should win: Kara Young

This category is between Sarah Pidgeon and Kara Young, and I could toss a coin and be happy with either winning. Kara Young has earned a reputation already as one of our great new stage actors, and her inimitable comic timing was on hilarious display in Purlie Victorious. But I give an edge to Pidgeon for what her role in Stereophonic requires of her, including a torturous song in which she has to hit wrong notes and make it sound natural. It’s a gut-wrenching performance.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber, Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

David Gordon
Will win: Jeremy Strong
Should win: Leslie Odom Jr.

To be clear, I’m fine with Jeremy Strong winning — he’s so into this play that he lets himself get pelted with ice cubes eight times a week. But I’m firmly in the Purlie camp this year: it was a great production of a play nobody remembered, and as the face of it, Leslie really made it happen.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Jeremy Strong
Should win: William Jackson Harper

David’s reasoning about Jeremy Strong is sound, but I would love to see this award go to William Jackson Harper, who is leading a revival of Uncle Vanya that ought to be retitled Doctor Astrov.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: William Jackson Harper
Should win: William Jackson Harper

William Jackson Harper gave such a strong performance in Uncle Vanya that he eclipsed the title character, played by Steve Carell. I’m going to make a longshot bet that voters will go for Harper’s achievement, despite the wider popularity of Enemy.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt: A Parable

David Gordon
Will win: Sarah Paulson
Should win: Rachel McAdams

Rachel McAdams has a moment in Mary Jane — when she lets herself break her façade of stoicism to feel emotion — which I’ll never, ever forget, period. No one else on this list got to that point for me.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Sarah Paulson
Should win: Sarah Paulson

By the second act of Appropriate, you can see members of the audience clutching their armrests and bracing for impact as Sarah Paulson reloads for another barrage of invective. This is how Brandon Jacobs-Jenkins’s words are meant to be delivered — and it’s breathtaking.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Sarah Paulson
Should win: Sarah Paulson

I had Sarah Paulson locked as the winner in this category from the moment I saw Appropriate in January. That opinion has not changed since. She will and should win.