Predictions: Which Actors Are Going to Win a Tony in 2025?

The winners of the 2025 Tony Awards will be revealed in a televised ceremony on Sunday, June 8. Here’s who our critics think will win in the acting categories.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH
Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw
Danny Burstein, Gypsy
Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins

David Gordon
Will win: Jak Malone
Should win: Jak Malone

Everyone in this category is a mensch. I’m glad to see Taylor Trench’s heartfelt performance recognized. Danny Burstein is as haimish a Herbie as you could want. Brooks Ashmanskas never met a line of dialogue he couldn’t chew up and spit out like Elaine Stritch. Jeb Brown is basically the lead of Dead Outlaw, so he shouldn’t be in this category, but he’s amazing nonetheless. It’s Jak Malone’s ability to make every stone-hearted Broadway audience member cry during “Dear Bill” that will seal the deal for him.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Brooks Ashmanskas
Should win: Brooks Ashmanskas

A stalwart comedian who has been appearing on the Broadway stage since 1996, Brooks Ashmanskas is one of those faces you envision when you think of a Broadway community. He has also never won a Tony Award, but that will change this year when he wins this category for his performance as the lovably abrasive director Nigel Davies in the messy backstage musical Smash.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Jak Malone
Should win: Jak Malone

I adored Brooks Ashmanskas in Smash. He lent the sparkle to what was for me an unexciting musical. Operation Mincemeat wasn’t my favorite of the year, either, but Jak Malone brought me to tears with the song “Dear Bill.” It was a performance that seemed to come out of nowhere and make the rest of the world go away, and I’ll never forget it. He deserves this one.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw
Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time
Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
Joy Woods, Gypsy

David Gordon
Will win: Natalie Venetia Belcon
Should win: Julia Knitel

Gracie Lawrence as Connie Francis in Just in Time is a real discovery—I’m excited to see what she does next. Justina Machado delivers her lines with a maternal sharpness and a veteran’s panache. There’s just something so delightfully peculiar about Julia Knitel’s performances as a variety of women in Dead Outlaw that I’d love to see her eek it out. But Natalie Venetia Belcon in Buena Vista Social Club — that is presence.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Justina Machado
Should win: Justina Machado

I really loved Real Women Have Curves, an old-fashioned feel-good musical that has unfortunately received scant regard in such a crowded season. But this category offers voters the best opportunity to recognize by awarding Machado for her dynamic performance as Carmen, a Mexican-American mom whose tough love regularly crosses the line into nastiness. It created an uncomfortably relatable mother-daughter dynamic for many women in the audience.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Julia Knitel
Should win: Justina Machado

Like Zach, I really enjoyed Real Women and wish it had gotten more love this season. Justina Machado is a revelation in that musical and I would love to see her recognized. I give an edge to Julia Knitel, however, for bringing an ease to her offbeat roles in Dead Outlaw that made a really odd musical seem, well, a little less odd.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
Jonathan Groff, Just in Time
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins

David Gordon
Will win: Jonathan Groff
Should win: Andrew Durand

Andrew Durand amazes me every time I see his performance in Dead Outlaw. He just stands there in a coffin for like 45 minutes and doesn’t even blink. How does he do it? That’s the magic of theater. There’s something equally magical about Jonathan Groff’s showmanship in Just in Time. You hang on his every word, and that’s why he’s going to take it for the second year in a row.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Darren Criss
Should win: Jeremy Jordan

Jordan has built up a lot of equity as a consistently excellent performer who is not consistently recognized. He was not even nominated for The Great Gatsby last year, and that sets him up for a correction a la Whoopi Goldberg (who lost an Oscar for The Color Purple in 1986 but won five years later for a much less impressive performance in Ghost). The truth is, Jordan is giving the greatest performance of his career (so far) in Floyd Collins, but that still won’t be enough to overcome the wave of enthusiasm for Maybe Happy Ending that Darren Criss, who is giving the greatest stage performance of his career (so far), will ride to his first Tony Award.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Jeremy Jordan
Should win: James Monroe Iglehart

I am really torn by this category. All are strong enough for me to be in my “Should Win.” Groff is a sweaty powerhouse in Just in Time. Durand sings furiously one minute, and stands stiff as board the next in Dead Outlaw. Criss charmed my socks off in Maybe Happy Ending. But I keep returning to Iglehart’s convincing portrayal of Louis Armstrong. He not only had the speaking voice, but the singing voice of Satchmo, and to sustain that for eight shows a week is no small feat. The show’s early closing, though, may have made him distant enough from voters’ minds so that another might step in. Jeremy Jordan, with his gorgeous performance of Adam Guettel’s difficult score, could be the one.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical 

THE NOMINEES
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her

David Gordon
Will win: Jasmine Amy Rogers
Should win: Audra McDonald

Everyone thought this was a contest between Audra McDonald and Nicole Scherzinger. Then Jasmine Amy Rogers’s big-hearted and sincere Betty Boop won the Outer Critics Circle Award (and tied with Audra for the Drama Desk; Nicole won neither), and I think the wind shifted a little bit. Audra caught a wave of good will in the last week of voting following the recent one-sided Patti LuPone dust-up, but this is going to be another year where David beats Goliath (even though my heart lies with Audra).

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Jasmine Amy Rogers
Should win: Jasmine Amy Rogers

Audra is great, but this isn’t her greatest performance—at least not vocally. It certainly doesn’t merit a seventh Tony Award. Much like last year, the voters will use this category to boost the career of a shiny newcomer. Jasmine Amy Rogers is making the most memorable Broadway debut of the season in Boop!, and that should be commemorated with a Tony.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Jasmine Amy Rogers
Should win: Jasmine Amy Rogers

After I saw Gypsy, I was certain that Audra McDonald was heading for her seventh Tony. Then I saw Nicole Scherzinger in Sunset Blvd. and knew for a fact this year’s award would go to her. Then I saw Jasmine Amy Rogers and I was completely won over. My opinion has not changed since. Rogers deserves this one, and she’ll get it.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

THE NOMINEES
Glenn Davis, Purpose
Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor Is the Villain
Francis Jue, Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!

David Gordon
Will win: Conrad Ricamora
Should win: Francis Jue

Francis Jue was so heartfelt, so raw, as a man defeated by the American dream in Yellow Face. He’s a beloved Broadway veteran, and I still think he could take it. But Conrad Ricamora’s angry, befuddled Abe Lincoln is a perfect complement to Cole Escola’s riotous Mary Todd Lincoln. They’re the double-act of the season, and that’s why Conrad is going to win.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Gabriel Ebert
Should win: Gabriel Ebert

I know, I know…it’s ironic that a play about women taking back the narrative is likely to receive only one Tony Award, and it will go to a man. But Ebert charms an audience of hundreds every night as cool teacher Mr. Smith, perfectly setting us up for the most shocking reveal of the night (which is not so shocking, upon reflection). It’s a master stroke, and worthy of a second Tony for Ebert.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Conrad Ricamora
Should win: Glenn Davis

Bob Odenkirk is the reason to see this year’s otherwise lackluster production of Glengarry Glen Ross, and I was taken with Glenn Davis’s nuanced portrayal of a man with mental illness. But I think voters will probably lean toward the actor who played a homosexual Abe Lincoln in Oh, Mary!, Conrad Ricamora. He made the icon-shattering comedic role look easier than it was, and he’ll be rewarded for it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
Tala Ashe, English
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Marjan Neshat, English
Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain
Kara Young, Purpose

David Gordon
Will win: Jessica Hecht
Should win: Jessica Hecht

A category where everyone did first-rate work. Jessica Hecht is the beloved veteran who’s never won of this group, and her performance did the impossible for me. In Eureka Day, she made me feel sympathy for a person whose views are the antithesis of my own. It didn’t change my mind, but it made me look at things differently. To me, that is a truly extraordinary feat.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Kara Young
Should win: Tala Ashe

Closed shows face a severe disadvantage at the Tonys, and I suspect not enough voters will recall Tala Ashe’s extraordinary performance in English. Instead, they will give this award to Kara Young for the second year in a row for her thoughtful and uncomfortably relatable performance in Purpose. I recently went back and couldn’t help but notice her restless legs during that incredibly awkward dinner scene.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Jessica Hecht
Should win: Kara Young

Kara Young is exceptional in every role I’ve seen her in. She is one of the stage greats of our time, and I would be overjoyed to see her win for Purpose. Jessica Hecht, however, executed her role as a closeted anti-vaxxer with such precision (and sympathy) that I left the theater looking closer at my own beliefs. Good theater and good acting does that. A Hecht win would be well deserved.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Harry Lennix, Purpose
Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow

David Gordon
Will win: Cole Escola
Should win: Cole Escola

I knew this would be Cole Escola’s from the moment the show announced a Broadway transfer. George Clooney is just lucky to be in Cole’s orbit.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Cole Escola
Should win: Cole Escola

I have predicted Escola’s win over the Hollywood A-list in this category since last year. What I didn’t predict was that so few of the big names would actually be nominated. With Denzel Washington, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Robert Downey Jr. out, George Clooney is Escola’s biggest competition. But voters are likely to reward the downtown cabaret star who came out of nowhere to inject so much excitement into the season with a laugh-out-loud comedy that has been playing at the Lyceum since last summer.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Cole Escola
Should win: Cole Escola

I saw Oh, Mary back in August and pegged Escola for the winner then. I’ve been a fan of Jon Michael Hill for years, ever since Pass Over, and his performance in Purpose is masterful. Louis McCartney wowed me for the sheer number of calories he expends in Stranger Things. Escola’s demented Mary Todd Lincoln, though, has remained my favorite performance. This is Escola’s year.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play 

THE NOMINEES
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray

David Gordon
Will win: Sarah Snook
Should win: Laura Donnelly

Sarah Snook is tireless in Dorian Gray, but she’s on screen so much that it just lost my interest. I’d love to see Laura Donnelly take it, for her two roles in The Hills of California, a relentless mother for the first half, and her mother’s traumatized adult daughter in the second. You don’t even realize it’s her—but we’re keenly aware that we’re watching Sarah Snook the whole time.

Zachary Stewart
Will win: Sarah Snook
Should win: Laura Donnelly

In addition to being a showcase of the cutting-edge of video technology, The Picture of Dorian Gray is a vehicle for Sarah Snook’s acting chops. She has them, and the voter will reward her for it. But if they dig back in their memories, they might recall Laura Donnelly being almost unrecognizable in two different roles in The Hills of California. It’s the superior performance, but closed shows like Hills always face an uphill battle.

Pete Hempstead 
Will win: Sarah Snook
Should win: Sarah Snook

This is Sarah Snook’s to lose. She has given the performance of a lifetime, and she deserves to win, hands down.