Which Shows Will Be Nominated for 2022 Tony Awards?

Broadway eagerly awaits the announcement of the 2022 Tony Award nominations. Originally scheduled to be released today, the announcement has been postponed to Monday, May 9 to give the nominators enough time to see every eligible production. But that won't stop our critics from sounding off on which shows they think will make the cut. Here are our critics' predictions for the categories of Best Musical, Best Play, Best Revival of a Musical, and Best Revival of a Play:

Best Musical

David Gordon:

A Strange Loop
Girl From the North Country
MJ
Mr. Saturday Night
Six

There are three sure-shots in this category: A Strange Loop (which, I will happily say now, is going to win), Girl From the North Country, and Six. Because there are nine eligible shows, the category will be extended from four to five slots, and I think the remaining slots will go to two of this season's crowd-pleasers: MJ and Mr. Saturday Night.

Zachary Stewart:

A Strange Loop
Girl From the North Country
Paradise Square
Mr. Saturday Night
Six

As much as I think David's list is probably correct, I wonder if there isn't a sizable constituency within the nominating committee that will want to preclude the possibility of a Michael Jackson jukebox musical winning the Best Musical Tony. If this is the case, it's safer to throw Paradise Square (which has no chance of winning) into the category and shut MJ out.

Best Play

David Gordon:

Dana H.
Clyde's
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Skeleton Crew

I think the only real lock here is The Lehman Trilogy, but these shows represent a good cross section of a uniquely strong season for plays. With a dozen possible nominees, this is a category that could go in a wide variety of directions.

Zachary Stewart:

Pass Over
Clyde's

The Lehman Trilogy
Skeleton Crew
The Minutes

Even though it has been closed for months, I suspect Pass Over holds a special place in the nominators' hearts for being the first Broadway show to begin performances after the pandemic, and for being a challenging new drama to boot. I'm afraid both Dana H. and Is This a Room (which ran in rep) will be conveniently forgotten, as they don't easily fall into the category of conventional play (especially the latter).

Best Revival of a Musical

David Gordon:

Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man

With only four productions eligible in this category, the committee only has to nominate three of them, unless the "difference in votes between the third highest ranked show and the fourth highest ranked show is ten percent or less." It's possible that Funny Girl could land the fourth slot — but as the revival with the most disappointing reviews of the year, I don't think it's that likely.

Zachary Stewart:

Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man
Funny Girl

I'm predicting that there will be just enough love for Funny Girl to get it within that ten percent, so all four shows will have a shot.

Best Revival of a Play

David Gordon:

for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
How I Learned to Drive
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

This is a category where any show that gets nominated is worthy of being on the list. As for the race itself, I think it's a contest between for colored girls and How I Learned to Drive, two excellent plays being given stunning productions.

Zachary Stewart:

for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
How I Learned to Drive
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind

I completely agree with David's assessment, and I'll add that I think How I Learned to Drive is the production to beat in this category.