Who Will Be Nominated for a 2024 Tony Award?

The cutoff for Tony Awards consideration has officially passed and we now have a complete view of the 2023-24 Broadway season. The 44 nominators will soon go into conclave and their list will be revealed Tuesday morning, not with a puff of white smoke but a livestreamed announcement.

Ahead of the big day, I have some predictions for the major categories, which you can read below — keeping in mind that the final eligibility ruling has not yet been released, and some of the featured actors I mention might be considered in the leading category and vice versa.

Best Musical
There will be at least five nominees in this category, but in the event of ties for the last slot, there could be as many as six or seven. The Outsiders, Water for Elephants, Suffs, and Hell’s Kitchen are the quad likeliest to be nominated, but there is room for surprises in the fifth slot. My money is on The Notebook, but don’t be surprised if the nominators opt instead for a courtesy nod to a show from earlier in the season like Here Lies Love, Harmony, or Days of Wine and Roses.

Best Play
This is another category that will have five nominees and I feel confident about four of them: Mary Jane, Mother Play, Prayer for the French Republic, and Stereophonic, with the last the frontrunner by a mile. The fifth slot is where there will be a surprise: perhaps Patriots (which is running, but received tepid notices), perhaps Jaja’s African Hair Braiding (which is not, but was critically acclaimed).

Best Revival of a Play
Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’s Appropriate is that rarest of Broadway beasts, a hit play (it is currently enjoying an extended run at the Belasco Theatre). It is a lock to be nominated and the odds-on favorite to win this category, which is guaranteed to have three nominees, but may have a surprise fourth. The likeliest fillers are An Enemy of the People and Uncle Vanya — but don’t discount a nom for the well-loved revival of Purlie Victorious, which closed in February.

Best Revival of a Musical
Following the frosty critical reception of Cabaret, this category belongs to Merrily We Roll Along (although I fully expect both productions to be nominated). In addition to those two, I predict the nominators will round out the category with the other two shows that are open: The Who’s Tommy and The Wiz.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
This is the category in which Peter Morgan’s Patriots will receive the most love and I fully expect nominations for both Michael Stuhlbarg (as Boris Berezovsky) and Will Keen (as Vladimir Putin), if he is placed in this category (his name appears above the title, but he may ultimately land in featured). Rounding out the category will be Jeremy Strong (An Enemy of the People) and Liev Schreiber (Doubt).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
This will be a battle of the A-listers, and I fully expect nominations for Sarah Paulson (Appropriate), Jessica Lange (Mother Play), and Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Without commentary: Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Who’s Tommy), Jeremy Jordan (The Great Gatsby), Jonathan Groff (Merrily We Roll Along), Brian d’Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses), and Chip Zien (Harmony)…although I would be delighted to see Corey Cott sneak in there for The Heart of Rock and Roll.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Expect nominations for Maryann Plunkett (The Notebook), Kelli O’Hara (Days of Wine and Roses), Eden Espinosa (Lempicka), and Maleah Joi Moon (Hell’s Kitchen), with the real competition between the latter two.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
I’m anticipating multiple nominees from Stereophonic in this category (most likely Will Brill and Tom Pecinka, but perhaps Eli Gelb for his performance as our lovable hero). Michael Imperioli will get in there for An Enemy of the People, as will Corey Stoll for Appropriate. Finally, it would be outrageous not to include William Jackson Harper for a performance that convinced me Uncle Vanya is mostly about Dr. Astrov (UPDATE: Harper will be considered in the leading category).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
I expect nominations for both women in Stereophonic, Juliana Canfield and Sarah Pidgeon. Quincy Tyler Bernstine absolutely deserves to be in this category for her performance as Mrs. Muller in the revival of Doubt. I suspect the nominators will reach back in their memory banks to nominate Francis Benhamou for her masterful delivery of Elodie’s aria in Prayer for the French Republic. And I hope they reach back even further to recognize Kara Young for her brilliant comic performance in Purlie Victorious, which would place her in this category for the third consecutive year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
This is always a tough category, so here is my best stab: Daniel Radcliffe (Merrily We Roll Along), Steven Skybell (Cabaret), Joshua Boone (The Outsiders), George Abud (Lempicka), and Paul Alexander Nolan (Water for Elephants).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Lindsay Mendez has already won this often-brutal category (for Carousel in 2018) and she seems like the frontrunner to clinch it again for her extraordinary performance as Mary in Merrily We Roll Along. But she’ll face real competition from Kecia Lewis (Hell’s Kitchen), Amber Iman (Lempicka), Joy Woods (The Notebook), and Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret).

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
In a season with so many new musicals, one can expect this to be a competitive category, with noms likely going to The Outsiders (Jonathan Clay, Zach Chance, and Justin Levine), Suffs (Shaina Taub), Days of Wine and Roses (Adam Guettel), and Water for Elephants (collaboratively written by PigPen Theatre Co.). But don’t be surprised to see a nomination go to Will Butler of Arcade Fire for the bundle of original songs he has written for the new play Stereophonic.

Best Book of a Musical
The nominators are likely to recognize Kristoffer Diaz (Hell’s Kitchen), Bekah Brunstetter (The Notebook), Shaina Taub (Suffs), Rick Elice (Water for Elephants), and Justin Levine and Adam Rapp (The Outsiders).

Best Choreography
This category will be a battle between Camille A. Brown (Hell’s Kitchen) and Justin Peck (Illinoise), with the edge going to the latter dance-centric show. We can also expect nominations for Rick and Jeff Kuperman (The Outsiders) and Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll (Water for Elephants). Personally, I would give the fifth slot to Katie Spelman for her beautiful work on The Notebook.

Best Direction of a Musical
Speaking of The Notebook, it would be a travesty not to give a nomination to Michael Greif and Schele Williams for their lucid and emotional staging of this tearjerker. I could easily see a double nomination for Greif for his work on Hell’s Kitchen. Maria Friedman will be nominated for finally making Merrily We Roll Along work. Rachel Chavkin will get a nod for Lempicka. But the frontrunner (in my mind at least) is Jessica Stone for brilliantly coordinating all the moving parts in Water for Elephants.

Best Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin will be the frontrunner in what I anticipate will be a runaway night for Stereophonic. But expect noms for Anne Kauffman (Mary Jane), Rupert Goold (Patriots), Tina Landau (Mother Play), and Sam Gold (An Enemy of the People).